I was watching the indoor athletics yesterday and I was reminded about my general rule of thumb which always serves to remind me just how slow I run. In general the elite athletes run twice as fast as I do. In fact this rule of thumb has proved remarkably reliable; world best half marathon times are typically around 60 minutes, I do it in round 2 hours. Elite 10k runners take around 25-30 mins; my best is 51.5mins. So confident am I that this rule holds, I predict that if I were to enter a 5k race I would finish with a time around 25-26 mins.
I also think my rule of 2 works for most other fun runners. For example, nearly 50% of all the finishers of the 2009 Cardiff Half Marathon finished with time between 1.8 and 2.2 times that of the world elite norm. Thats over 3000 runners all following my rule of 2 to within 10%.
So does the rule help with the rest of the triathlon?
The worlds road cycling elite barrel along for 4,5,6 hours at average speeds around 50km/hr (or 30mph). So the rule of two would predict my efforts on a bike to result in average speeds of 15mph. Today I did a ride over the Malvern Hills averaging 12.9mph but that was hilly. Other rides on the flat have so far yielded average speeds in the 14-15 mph region. So despite the fact that my rides are not 4+ hours it would appear that the rule of 2 is working on the bike.
So what about the swimming. My tri swim in July is over 750m so what is the typical elite swimmer times for 800m? Well Rebecca Adlington knocks out 800m in around 8mins or less so the rule of 2 says I should be hitting around 16mins for 32 lengths of my local pool. Sadly, I am not even close. 32 lengths is taking me more like 30mins so the rule 2 has broken completely. Not just a slight extension to 2.2 or 2.5 but a complete collapse to a factor 4. Does water add its own rule of 2 making my rule a rule of 2 squared? I don't know the answer but I am already pretty sure I will not be completing my first tri swim in under 15 minutes. I will be happy with anything inside of a rule of 4.
Hmm When swimming one uses all four so maybe it is correlated to how many legs and arm a that is must be used?
ReplyDeleteWell probaly an elite one leg jumper would jump faster tha you but will he be twice as fast?
I like the thinking here and you could be on to something. Not sure what the elite para-olympic record is for hopping but I the reckon a para athlete would manage to go at least twice as fast as I could.
ReplyDeleteYou will find your rule does hold once your swimming fitness/technique improves. Remember too that you will be swimming down river in a wetsuit which helps a lot.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the vote of confidence Anthony but I am not sure I share your optimism. There just isn't enough training time available and age is not doing any favours either.
ReplyDeleteMore seriously though, my improvements over the last years on running times have only managed to reduce the rule of 2 by a few percent. We talking of a shift from 2.1 to 1.9 for example. The shift from 4 to 2 is thus a massive shift and I am not sure I fancy a river current that can make that much difference!
My first 400m tri-swim was about 10mins, only a month before it was taking 14mins. Swimming is really all about technique, if you can improve that the times will come down a lot.
ReplyDeleteThe wetsuit will probably help your technique too. A good example is that in the pool I can lap a friend in a 400m race but in the lake he beats me by minutes over 750m all because the wetsuit improves his body position.